qb hjejy rq
Feb 26, 2015 @ 9:27 pm

I got a optimism.  bc I won’t go out, I’m already on vacation.  I’m sliding off the continent already.  I’m consolidating my party in the time that remains before that divide.

we went legal here.  it’s funny to watch and it’s of great benefit to the mayor no doubt to get swiped at by the distant powerless aristocracy.

everyone figures it won’t bottom until a little while after storage is full.  people will place their bets on that day, not knowing.


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;afevfqwe
Feb 21, 2015 @ 10:31 am

still not too well lit

/

looking now at my notes from last time:

“airplane. adjusting.  it’s like flying.

“the novel is a trick to keep me from looking at the guide book.

“sleepy, & stormy sky

“feels like monday low season

“much space & time

“little flies must not be mosquitos

“cool & breezy after rain & dark

“headache

“no mosquitos

“imperative for today is lack of ambition and scant anticipation of future ambitions

“don’t ever let anyone tell you that I’m not smart or I’m just some asshole

“persons sit down at your table & have an abacus

“in ron there are dimensions, horses, hills. satellites. women walking uphill

“resist.  resist.  save me from the beach

“fuck around tho

“a word that draws the eye is against surveillance

“just because I hope something might be funny doesn’t mean I’m kidding

“microclimate or different day or acclimation or ground surface

“it really is all about the mind.  the body is part of the mind so one wants to swim around and hike

“vs restlessness to make plans, even for the next day and to make my plans make shapes

“new facility with the present

“not much to do in charco verde except hike, swim, eat, drink, read, write

“people here don’t seem to care abt money

“my spanish has been atrocious and I am getting compliments on my spanish

“make a list of people

“paranoia

“existentially blessed

“if one does much, the time passes.  if one does little, the time passes

“people are not vending machines.  listen (ordinar)

“I have already put into practice things I learned from those people in Moyo

“what can I do here that I can bring back

“what can I see from here

“can I bring back some remove

“hindsight is in the present

“lake mind and metropolis

“oh, I almost missed this, so close was I to the terminal

“buses were passing my mysterious ant

“if one had said managua I may have flagged it down

“an american style plaza hotel

“always we keep churning and hope it all works out

“it’s funny how you go to school and walk away with a single word that can contain all your education

“all my troubles were so here to stay, I don’t believe in yesterday, muy facil for me to say

“I want to be a kind of tadpole always before the future

“not ever die

“the parrots scream but it no longer matters

“this place is so good that I will never come here again

“everywhere the eye goes is more color, texture, shape, process than the mind thinks a place can contain

“the mind near the eyes swells to receive it

“motorcycles among appliances

“mellow and energetic

“curbside lagoons, small performances of traffic

“angled lumber in open store rooms, boutiques, churches

“bumpers, ladders, gutters

“stone cannisters

“the accustomed expressions of residents

“every twitch of the eye strikes an unmapped color

“small, endless, embarrassing, and I almost didn’t come here

“roots piled in the air

 


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a weqew
Feb 20, 2015 @ 10:54 am

I know life is short, but it’s not as short as I think it is lately.  I have an exaggerated sense of the shortness of time lately.  it seems to have the effect, it has effects, probably.

it has been really cold.  not a lot of walking around outside, some days.

——-

occasionally I need some foreign and numeric thing to analyze.  something that is ripe for analysis but also resists analysis endlessly, like oil.  meanwhile I haven’t been looking at mock drafts at all.  reading about oil takes up that same space mentally.  I don’t give a dern about mock drafts lately, not at all.

sometimes one looks at a thing for a while and thinks, this thing is either interesting or boring, I’m not sure which.


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greenspan on oil
Feb 19, 2015 @ 4:55 pm

look at this nonsense.  No, OPEC hasn’t ceded anything.  Saudis still have a ton more oil than the U.S.A., tho a bit of fakery with the numbers can make it seem not so.  The fall in oil price is not evidence that the U.S.A. has gained control.  It’s evidence that Saudis still have control, at least in the near-term, the next several years.  When they do lose control, it won’t be due to U.S. oil, it will be due to U.S. tech and Chinese tech.  In the form of solar, battery storage and wind.

what is “Normal diplomacy”.

Greenspan says “More than half of the oil content of shale wells is run off in the first two years of operation, while conventional wells keep producing for 20 years or more.”  He somehow thinks this supports his point that the U.S.A. now has the power.  No the fact that U.S. fields deplete faster does not somehow mean that the U.S.A. has more leverage beyond the near-term.

U.S.A. can prevent oil from rising to 100/bbl, for a while at least.  That’s some control.  Saudis, though, control whether oil is 90/bbl or 30/bbl, which means they can toggle U.S. exploration and development off and on.

 


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;fweacewa
Feb 18, 2015 @ 7:34 pm

oil will fall to the marginal cost of production.  that’s the cost of operating existing infrastructure.  in other words, you don’t factor in your sunk costs when deciding whether to continue producing.  per wood mackenzie via the houston chronic, only 1.6 percent of 2222 oil fields surveyed say they would have negative cash flow at $40/bbl.  this is why $50 oil didn’t reduce near term production, and why price will fall again.

low prices do put a halt to exploration and development.  companies will go back to wells they thought were mostly spent and try again there with the latest technology, often producing a lot of oil that way.  but new finds last year were the lowest in 60 years.

so production won’t decline soon, and price won’t rise.  we’re expecting a bottom around 35/bbl.  meanwhile, though, what you have is depletion of existing fields, a lot of oil going into storage, and no new fields coming online.  price could go from 40 to 140 pretty quickly at some point, with storage absorbing some of the shock.  but that’s months off, at least.

*************************advertorial*************************

 

it’s entirely possible saudis could, for whatever reasons, start producing a bit less.  who knows, whatever they’re hoping for, they might decide it’s not going to happen, etc.  but most likely they’ll keep producing.  they still have 10 times more plausibly recoverable oil than the USA.  they can sell their oil for 40 for a while until some other places dry up, including the USA, then they can sell the rest of their oil for 150.  they won’t get to sell all of it, because of electric cars, but they’ll get to sell quite a lot of it at a high price.

 

*************************advertorial*************************

 

when oil is cheap, people talk about carbon taxes.  instead what you need is a price floor when oil is expensive.  when it’s 100/bbl, the feds could set a floor at 90/bbl.  who would complain?  when market price dips below 90, the feds take the difference in the form of a tax.  then they send rebate checks to everyone, so it’s revenue neutral overall.  oil companies wouldn’t like it because they want gas prices to fall when oil is cheap, so people will buy more gas.  but most people would approve when they see their check.  at 100/bbl, fuel-intensive businesses have already adjusted and won’t complain as much as they otherwise might when prices go down to 90 and don’t go lower.  they’ll still complain a bit.


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vawregw 5ehw
Feb 17, 2015 @ 3:04 pm

wait for oil to hit 40-45/bbl then buy as much solar as you can stomach.

snow day.  I tramped about.

johnny cash — upstairs — snow light

 

 


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rgswererg
Feb 04, 2015 @ 11:15 am

if one were going to study spanish, these are some things one could study…

verbs — presente / pretérito / perfecto de indicativo

vocab

pronouns

there are many other verb tenses of course but to study something one won’t use, is dubious.  I’ll dip into a few others.

I’ve very recently learned how to toggle my keyboard layout between English (US) to English (US, international with dead keys).

 


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wevfq w gqw gqe
Feb 04, 2015 @ 10:37 am

latest is that it’s today, I’m drinking coffee.  my book is “out” and while most people who happen by this way are probably aware of that fact, I’m now going to perform a ritual to make it official in a blog way.  the following is the ritual:

book ——————— blog ———————— out

book ——————— blog ———————— out

here it is / here it is / here it is

Say!

Say!

book ——————— blog ———————— out

book ——————— blog ———————— out

That was pretty good.  I do feel like it’s a bit more official now that I have completed this ritual.  The problem is that, even tho it was a contrived ritual it still leads me to question whether this is in fact somehow a weekend.  but it’s wednesday, not a weekend.

now and again people respond to the messages that go out on the dcpoetry listserv and because I administer the site I guess the messages go to me.  the people writing them think the message is going out to the whole list, or in any case to someone other than me, I presume.  these messages generally say things like “I really wish I could go to this one, but I live in Idaho now!”

 

 


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n
Jan 31, 2015 @ 10:26 am

I bought a ticket… nicaragua.  airfare is $150 less this time.I seriously considered trinidad & tobago.  I watched short films, etc.  It looks very nice but it’s hard to get a read on price of accommodations.  prices seem to be similar to U.S.A. prices.  Also there is a mosquito problem.

in nica I will do a mix of things I didn’t previously do and things I did do.  I will at some point experience homesicknesses, then that will go away, then come back.I will have the advantages of familiarity.  understanding the distances (e.g. how far can one bus in a day).  knowing of the good restaurants and bad.  knowing of things.  I can go much farther from the airport the first day, instead of stopping in granada.  I know where it’s hot (granada) and where not hot.  I understand (remember) that there is often nothing to do.  I know how much to expect from food and coffee.
I will have some disadvantages of familiarity… fewer surprises.  but there will still be some surprises.  there will be some jaded moments of hemmingwayesque ennui, but there are workarounds.I’m looking forward to being good at it from the start, and looking at the guide book a lot less.  I can step off the plane and know that I shouldn’t spend a half hour asking around about cabs.  instead just walk across the street and get on the bus.


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qw gqrg
Jan 27, 2015 @ 10:39 pm

I’m looking to get solar panels this year or next.  I joined a listserv for people seeking to form co-ops in the district.  in other words, bulk-purchase many installations from the same company at a discount.

 

tmw go outside regardless .

tidy up.

I’m drinking tea and I’m sitting here.

 

 


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