Comments on: every mic is a live mic

By: ryan

ryan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 03:56:19 +0000

there is now somewhat less than 3% chance

By: aRerr

aRerr — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:04:05 +0000

I’m told there’s a 10.1% chance the game goes to overtime

By: aRerr

aRerr — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:29:25 +0000

the speech indicated she’s not going to bring up social issues because the handlers know her views are unpopular and the Christian right already knows the score. However, the talk show hosts will be all over those questions.

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:48:09 +0000

ok, this kind of thing annoys the hell out of me. this from an article on fox:

“During one part of her speech, she couldn€™t see the teleprompter because signs were blocking it. That was when she ad-libbed a line about the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull €” “lipstick.”

but it was obvious, watching the speech, that the “ad-lib” was scripted. she looked up at the hockey mom signs — which were raised by delegates more or less in unison in a particular part of the hall — paused, gave a little laugh, and then delivered her “improvised” line.

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:35:09 +0000

I have no doubt that she’s capable of memorizing the talking points and even thinking on her feet. her delivery will be polished. I just think it’s going to be hard to write her messages. because either they have to be open about her extreme views, or they have to try to conceal them. if they do the latter, it may be harder to pass her off as “authentic.” if they let her talk about opposing stem cell research, opposing abortion in cases of rape and incest, etc, people just aren’t going to like what she’s saying, except in areas where the GOP is going to win anyways.

probably they will deploy her in the more conservative parts of ohio and pennsylvania, and probably control the audiences like they did with bush, not allowing anyone to attend except the fervent supporters. made-for-tv rallies.

there’s no doubt she’ll help motivate the base and maybe help in some congressional elections, but I can’t see her helping nationally with independents.

By: aRerr

aRerr — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:16:09 +0000

the whole night was auditioning for 2012, including Palin. What she did was energize the Democratic base that was becoming less excited by Obama’s recent shifts of position and the Biden pick and establish herself as a pathological liar and a ‘pit bull’ that deserves no soft treatment by the opposition. My blood is still curling. This is of course her last night talking to the nation without follow up questions, arguments, and thinking on her feet.

By: ryan

ryan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 15:21:47 +0000

I watched the palin speech last night. she’s a sugar high for the GOP base, not much more.

I expect the line of attack from dems will be quite simple: she’s extreme on the issues. opposed to stem-cell research, opposed to benefits for same-sex couples, thinks global warming is not man-made, favors abstinence education.

in the convention speeches she was billed as the future of the GOP, but the GOP is in worse shape than we thought if they believe things are trending toward her views, which are straight out of the 1980s. she feeds into a GOP fantasy about returning to that past. the young people who she is supposed to appeal to won’t go for it, and neither will independents.

By: aRerr

aRerr — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:53:43 +0000

Yeah, this is priceless. At least you called the race before Peggy Noonan did, right after the Iowa primary, even if you acted scared a few months later. Full text:

Peggy Noonan: Yeah.
Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys — this is how you win a Texas race, just run it up. And it’s not gonna work. And –
PN: It’s over.
MM: Still McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good.
Chuck Todd: I also think the Palin pick is insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too.
PN: Saw Kay this morning.
CT: Yeah, she’s never looked comfortable about this –
MM: They’re all bummed out.
CT: Yeah, I mean is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?
PN: The most qualified? No! I think they went for this — excuse me– political bullshit about narratives –
CT: Yeah they went to a narrative.
MM: I totally agree.
PN: Every time the Republicans do that, because that’s not where they live and it’s not what they’re good at, they blow it.
MM: You know what’s really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.
CT: This is cynical, and as you called it, gimmicky.
MM: Yeah.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/03/peggy-noonan-mike-murphy_n_123647.html

Romney is still angry at McCain for not picking him, and delivered a speech that hurts McCain with independents (Supreme Court is liberal?) but helps Romney with primary voters in 2012.